A monthly round-up of the MAPI resources available to NFPA members through NFPA's membership in MAPI.
Issues in Brief
U.S. Manufacturing Competitiveness: Putting the 2000s in Perspective
In this brief report, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Economic Consultant Jeremy Leonard examines the competitive posture of U.S. manufacturers during the 2000-2007 economic expansion and the ensuing Great Recession. Despite the many competitive challenges, U.S. manufacturers performed well compared to competitors in other major industrialized economies during the expansion, despite the rise of China. U.S. manufacturers also proved nimble in adjusting to the downdraft in demand in 2008-2009 by shedding workers and reducing production capacity, but ensuring a strong future for U.S. manufacturers involves more than just continued cost cutting on the part of businesses—it necessitates sufficient demand growth to feed new plant capacity and the innovation that comes with it. This requires a stronger global economic recovery and better access to fast-growing foreign markets, as well as a domestic business environment that encourages firms to locate their production facilities in the United States.
Lean and Process Improvement in Commercial Functions
The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI recently asked members of several of its Councils to share their experiences with applying lean principles to sales, marketing, and customer service. Nearly 80 percent of the respondents currently use lean in some sales and/or marketing processes. By no means, however, are respondents using lean in every (or even most) sales and marketing process. Generally speaking, we found respondents much less likely to have applied lean to sales than to customer service or marketing.
Taking Stock of Manufacturing
A stock index based on 72 manufacturing companies (all Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI members) significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index between March 2009 and early February 2011. This is in stark contrast to what occurred in the late 1990s. This paper compares the profit performance of manufacturers to all domestic industries, P/E ratios of manufacturers and the S&P 500 index, and changes in the industrial production index for manufacturing and real GDP from 2009 to the present. The paper finds that the relative performance of manufacturing stocks is consistent with fundamental determinants of stock prices and discounts the notion that the performance of manufacturing stocks is the result of "irrational exuberance."
A New Phase For U.S. Economic Growth: Recovery To Expansion
presented by Cliff Waldman, Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
An improved growth rate in the last three months of 2010 transitioned the economy from a recovery to an expansion phase of the cycle. The fourth quarter 2010 economic growth took GDP above the pre-recession fourth quarter 2007 peak. Cliff discusses the impact of the holiday compromise that added another $300 billion in fiscal stimulus over the next two years. In light of the new payroll tax cut and expensing provisions for business equipment and software, MAPI has significantly raised its forecast for economic and manufacturing growth in 2011. The revised forecast is revealed in this audiovisual report. Finally, the MAPI economist gives his analysis on whether rising commodity prices foretell an imminent risk of accelerating inflation. The audiovisual presentation takes approximately 10 minutes to view.
India Manufacturing Outlook
Amidst Slowing Output Growth, a More Balanced Manufacturing Expansion
This report presents fiscal year 2010 and fiscal year 2011 output growth projections for 16 major divisions of the manufacturing sector in India. Total manufacturing output growth is expected to slow from the double-digit pace seen in fiscal year 2009, slipping below 10 percent during fiscal year 2010, with further moderation expected during fiscal year 2011. A domestic demand recovery that has become somewhat more balanced between capital spending and consumer spending is reflected in our industry projections. Buoyed in part by a sizable commitment of public infrastructure funds, capital goods industries are expected to continue to be relatively strong performers through fiscal years 2010 and 2011, although we forecast slower output growth in these sectors. The projected acceleration in the output growth of the food products, beverages, and textiles industry sectors is consistent with a moderately brighter consumer spending picture.
The United States and China Trade Places
Trade in Manufactures During the First Decade of the 21st Century and How the United States Should Respond
During the past decade, China rose rapidly to surpass the United States as the number one exporter of manufactures. In 2000, U.S. global exports of manufactures were three times larger than Chinese exports, while by 2010 Chinese exports were almost 50 percent higher than U.S. exports, and are now on track to double them in two to three years. This report is in three parts. The first part examines the structural changes in trade during the past decade, including the growing imbalances, the second part projects further increases in Chinese market share and the imbalances in 2011, and the third part proposes a comprehensive U.S. policy response, covering exchange rates and trade and domestic economic policies.
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