2026 Economic and Market Indicators: Key Trends and Insights

NFPA’s Econ and Market Indicators (EMI) report pulls together data from multiple sources to provide the latest trends for:

• Customer Markets (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Economic Indicators (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve)
• Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve)
• Producer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Members can view individual series and apply different calculations such as moving averages and rates of change. Members can also compare rates of change between markets. Tables can be sorted by values for quick looks at growing and declining markets.

Some highlights from the report include:

• Growth in Total Manufacturing Orders

  • Total Manufacturing Orders are up 5.2% from last month, with sub-categories rising from the past month as well. This uptrend is not solely attributed to the cyclical nature of orders as Total Manufacturing Orders are up 10.8% compared to last year. The sub-categories, excluding defense and excluding transportation, are both up over 11% from last year.

  • All three categories show promises of continual growth beyond the annual cycle. Each category shows a positive 3/12 that is greater than the 12/12. This indicates continual growth for manufacturing orders in the future.
    
    Total Manufacturing Orders: 3-Month Movign Average, 12/2009 – 9/2026

  • Update on Farm Machinery and Equipment
    
    • Farm Machinery and Equipment shipments are down 2% from last month and down 3.6% compared to September of 2025. The 12-month moving average shows a sliding decrease since the middle of 2024. The 12/12 is also approaching the 3/12, showing a potential inversion.
    • The producer price index year-over-year value fell by 0.37% from August to September of 2026. The rise in the 3-month and 12-month moving average of the industrial production index for Farm Machinery and Equipment are good to see, but not enough to prevent the year-end market slowdown.

The EMI report can be accessed at this link: https://www.nfpa.com/econ-market-indicators. An excel file with all the raw data is also available to download for internal analysis.

If you have any questions about interpreting or using the data in these reports, please contact Richard Zarling at rzarling@nfpa.com.