ITR’s Q4 2025 U.S. Customer Markets Forecast Report is now available. This report forecasts over 30 different popular fluid power markets. Identify which phase of the business cycle a market is in and where it is headed in the future. Forecasts for fluid power, pneumatics, and hydraulics have been updated. Highlights include:
NFPA Total Shipments index is currently in phase A, recovery. However, the forecast for the balance of 2025 has been revised down from 1.3% to -4% ITR Economics writes the following to help explain their downgrade decision:
“We downgraded the forecast to reflect conditions in the mix of markets NFPA serves, which are some of the harder-hit markets in this business cycle relative to overall business-to-business spending. Drag is stemming from agriculture, material handling, mining, construction equipment, and heavy truck. The upsides in electrical and high-tech markets have not materially benefited the fluid power segment. While many markets will begin to rebound in 2026, the rate of recovery will be sluggish,” page 6 of the latest report.
Construction Machinery Production has been updated to phase A, recovery, with a current index of -7.5%. Construction Machinery Production forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 did not change with the new report.
ITR Economics notes several economic opportunities and risks for NFPA members in the Forecast Summary. For example, ITR Economics writes, “End-markets, such as offroad equipment, material handling, and heavy truck, that experienced severe contraction in volume in 2025 will rebound in 2026. Plan for year-over-year improvement. Relief and better times are coming, but do not expect record highs given lingering downside from interest rates,” on page 9 of the latest report.Interested in an alternate perspective on NFPA Total Shipments, Total Hydraulic Shipments, and Total Pneumatic Shipments forecasts? Tune into the Fall Economic Outlook webinar featuring Jim Meil of ACT Research November, 13th at 10am CST. Similar to ITR Economics, Jim Meil develops forecasts for NFPA market data using high level index shipment and order data sourced from the NFPA Confidential Shipment Statistics program.
If you have any questions about interpreting or using the data in this report, please contact Cecilia Bart at cbart@nfpa.com.