Forecasting conditions in 2025 have been marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty. Fortunately, participants in NFPA’s State of the Fluid Power (SOFP) survey have access to a powerful predictive tool. The SOFP Index has historically led key NFPA shipment data by several months, providing an early signal of directional change:
8 months ahead of NFPA Mobile Hydraulic Shipments
9 months ahead of NFPA Industrial Hydraulic Shipments
8 months ahead of NFPA Pneumatic Shipments
Scroll to the end of this article to explore visual comparisons and trend analyses that illustrate the strength of these relationships.
NFPA conducts two monthly surveys with its manufacturing members. The State of the Fluid Power (SOFP) survey asks members quick questions about the current state and future of the industry, while Confidential Shipment Statistics (CSS) tracks orders and shipments of fluid power components.
One of the questions asked in the SOFP survey reads, “How will the next 12 months of shipments compare to the last 12 months of shipments”, with answer options as:
This question is posed for pneumatics, mobile hydraulics, and industrial hydraulics specifically. It turns out, in NFPA’s CSS survey, we collect shipment values for those three categories as well. This posed the question: Does SOFP predict CSS?
The SOFP question (how will the next 12 months of shipments compare to the last 12 months of shipments?) is essentially asking respondents to predict, directionally, the 12/12 rate of change. These answers are tallied and converted into a diffusion index resulting in a number from 0 to 100 (0 = 100% of responses were “below” while 100 = 100% of responses were “above”).
What we have done below is plot the SOFP diffusion indexes for pneumatic, mobile hydraulic, and industrial hydraulic against the same CSS shipments indexes graphed with a 12/12 rate of change. Given the predictive nature of the SOFP index, we can shift the index forward to line up peaks and troughs, effectively creating a leading indicator.
Pneumatic:
Lining up peaks and troughs put the SOFP index 8 months ahead of the CSS 12/12 rate of change. The SOFP index shows a more positive but tentative outlook for future pneumatic shipments due to recent volatility. CSS shipments 12/12 have been trending slowly upwards so far in 2025.
Note: SOFP index was shifted to revolve around 0 for this graph.
Mobile Hydraulic:
Like pneumatic, the SOFP index also shifted forward 8 months to line up peaks and troughs. CSS shipments 12/12 have only recently changed direction to trending more positively in 2025. SOFP index indicates member's initial optimism entering into the year then volatile expectations as policy became more uncertain.
Note: SOFP index was shifted to revolve around 0 for this graph.
Industrial Hydraulic:
The Industrial hydraulic SOFP index follows suit, being shifted forward 9 months to line up peaks and troughs. The CSS shipments 12/12, similar to the mobile hydraulic shipments 12/12, has only recently began to move in a positive direction. The Industrial Hydraulic SOFP index follows a similar directional movement as the Pneumatic and Mobile Hydraulics’ SOFP index as it trends initially positive then becomes very volatile.
Note: SOFP index was shifted to revolve around 0 for this graph.
For a second look at information seen in this article, please copy and paste the link below in your browser: file://nfpasvr01/Shared$/Market%20Information/1_NewOrganization/R%20Dashboards/CSS%20x%20SOFP/CSS---SOFP---Version-2.html Correlation and series lag is calculated in the webpage linked, in addition to adjustable visuals.
This data is available to participants in each respective survey. For If you have questions or want more info on how to participate in these surveys, don’t hesitate to reach out.
For any questions regarding registration, report access, and raw data availability, please contact Cecilia Bart at cbart@nfpa.com