Oxford Economics has supplied NFPA with additional reports and data specifically focused on U.S. tariffs. These reports aim to address key questions, outline best- and worst-case scenarios, and present the anticipated impacts of the tariffs.
 Highlights include the following:
- "The negative financial market reaction to the tariff announcements probably reflects near-term growth concerns. But there is a risk that a more protectionist US will be a less attractive place for global flows, and there is a clear historical link between global capital flows and trade openness," (Key questions about the new US tariffs answered. Oxford Economics).
- "A best-case scenario would be one in which the effective tariff rate falls to as low as 12%. If the administration begins rolling back tariffs in the next few months, the US economy could end up growing not too far from its potential this year," (Worst-case/best-case tariff scenarios. Oxford Economics).
- "The enormous surge in front-loading ahead of tariffs means that we now expect GDP to sharply contract in Q1. However, that mostly reflects quirks in how the data are calculated and will do little to shift our view of the economy or the odds of a recession later this year," (First-quarter GDP headlines won't tell the whole story. Oxford Economics).
If you have any questions about interpreting or using the data in these reports, please contact Cecilia Bart at cbart@nfpa.com.