The Quarterly By-Country Forecasts from Oxford Economics have been updated on NFPA’s member hub. See the latest outlooks for over 60 different countries. Highlights from the latest reports include:
- US: “Manufacturing output is expected to expand 1% in 2025, driven by growth in the high-tech goods sector. In 2026, manufacturing output is forecast at -0.8% growth, driven by a decline in the mechanical engineering sector.”
- Eurozone: “The eurozone automotive sector appears to finally be nearing the end of its contractionary period in 2025, though it is still expected to shrink modestly before stalling in 2026. A subdued economic environment continues to weigh on demand, and elevated car sales in previous years have dampened consumer appetite. However, EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports are offering some support to domestic manufacturers. Further headwinds persist from the ongoing transition of internal combustion engine (ICE) production lines to battery electric vehicle (BEV) platforms.”
- China: “Fundamentally we expect the tariffs to be effective in reducing China–US trade. The industrial production that fuels China’s export engine will not escape unscathed: we expect production to fall in both Q2 and Q3 as the economy adjusts to the shock. While a return to growth should be possible by the end of the year, we do not expect catch-up growth: the level of production will be permanently lower and the structural transition to lower industrial growth will be hastened."
Additionally, Quarterly Industry Forecast Reports from Oxford Economics have been updated on NFPA’s member hub. Some quick insights include:
- Overview: “Globally, big-ticket and investment-driven sectors such as automotive and mechanical engineering are expected to be some of the slowest-growing sectors over the next two years. On the other side of the ledger, electronics—while both highly traded and investment-driven—is expected to post solid growth due to structural demand for AI chips. In addition, less trade-intensive sectors, such as food & beverages, will also be among the best performers in industry. “
- Construction: “Total US construction output is set to grow in 2025 although the forecast has been downgraded to 0.7%. Rising trade policy uncertainty and weakening consumer confidence are expected to weigh on the US economy, constraining construction through suppressed investment and activity.”
- Motor Vehicles: “The global automotive sector is forecast to see output fall by 0.4% this year and 2.6% in 2026 as US tariffs upend global trading relationships. The Trump administration has initiated a global tariff of 25% against automotive imports into the US. Given that approximately 45% of total US car sales are from imports, the impact on US domestic prices will be significant.”
Oxford Economics produces quarterly forecast reports for 10+ industries. These reports highlight forecast drivers and constraints with upside and downside scenario outlooks. Industries covered include Construction, Motor Vehicles, Extraction, Electronics and Computers, and more. These reports additionally apply the industry forecasts to a handful of major market countries, such as Germany, United States, United Kingdom, China, Japan, and several others.
Download these reports and more from Oxford Economics with your NFPA member login: https://www.nfpa.com/global-forecast-oxford-economics.
For any questions, please contact Cecilia Bart at cbart@nfpa.com.