The Quarterly By-Country Forecasts from Oxford Economics have been updated on NFPA’s member hub. See the latest outlooks for over 60 different countries. Highlights from the latest reports include:
- US: “Industrial production is set to expand slightly this year, with growth of around 1.1% still likely as easing trade tensions offset some of the drag from higher tariffs and elevated borrowing costs. While business investment is expected to weaken due to the trade war and rising input prices—especially in metal-intensive sectors—a broader downturn remains unlikely in 2025.”
- Eurozone: “The fastest growing industrial sectors over the next decade are expected to be other transport equipment, utilities and pharmaceuticals. The slowest growing sectors are expected to be coal & lignite mining, leather goods and oil & natural gas extraction.”
- Canada: “Canadian industry is highly dependent on exports to the US. Most goods-producing industries are very exposed to the US through this channel: in the median sector the value of exports to the US accounts for 40% of the value of total gross output, with export value being greater than 60% of gross output in sectors like motor vehicles, electricals, mining, and rubber & plastics.”
- China: “Domestic and external strength have come together to sustain industrial production growth at much stronger-than-expected levels in the first half of the year. As such, we have raised our full-year 2025 forecast for industrial growth to 5.5% and next year’s to 2.9%, both substantial upgrades over our previous update.”
Additionally, Quarterly Industry Forecast Reports from Oxford Economics have been updated on NFPA’s member hub. Some quick insights include:
- Overview: “Mechanical engineering and motor vehicles stand out as the biggest losers within manufacturing if the trade war escalates. Their high reliance on cross-border supply chains and strong sensitivity to investment, which is more cyclical than overall GDP, make them especially vulnerable.”
- Construction: “Pent-up demand for construction following the Covid-19 pandemic has mostly now been satisfied, as many of the easy gains have been captured. Growth will now need to be generated through housing demand or infrastructure investment for the foreseeable future. Infrastructure investment is likely to be a major driver in the coming years, and it will be needed to offset weakness in other areas of the economy. Utilities projects are likely to be a point of focus as countries pursue their climate targets and green transition.”
- Motor Vehicles: “The US automotive sector is heading into a period of contraction, as tariffs and policy reversals weigh on both production and demand. Industry output is forecast to fall by 3.5% this year, with a further 4.5% decline projected for 2026.”
Oxford Economics produces quarterly forecast reports for 10+ industries. These reports highlight forecast drivers and constraints with upside and downside scenario outlooks. Industries covered include Construction, Motor Vehicles, Extraction, Electronics and Computers, and more. These reports additionally apply the industry forecasts to a handful of major market countries, such as Germany, United States, United Kingdom, China, Japan, and several others.
Download these reports and more from Oxford Economics with your NFPA member login: https://www.nfpa.com/global-forecast-oxford-economics.
For any questions, please contact Cecilia Bart at cbart@nfpa.com.